Tagged: ian kay
Spot Check: Call my name, Alejandro
By Ian Kay
Here are a few widely-available starters whose matchups, recent performance and horoscope readings point to useful turns in the next couple days.
Because why use a roster spot on one pitcher when you can use it on three?
Mixed league
Brett Myers, Astros (available in 76 percent of Yahoo! leagues)
Start: Wednesday, July 21 at Cubs
Outlook: Why is Myers still a spot starter? Why is he available in so many leagues? Stop the madness! Myers has gone at least six innings in each of his 19 starts this season, has a 3.19 ERA since the beginning of May and won’t kill your WHIP. The Cubs have the fourth-worst offense in the NL and Myers already shut them down once this season (6 2/3 IP, 9 baserunners, 2 ER, 6 Ks and a win on June 6). Grab him and hold him until things go south — I’m begging you.
Jorge De La Rosa, Rockies (51 percent available)
Start: Thursday, July 22 vs. Marlins
Outlook: JDLR’s first couple turns after returning from a 10-week DL stint were pretty messy (7 2/3 IP, 10 H, 11 ER, 6/6 K/BB), but I say he rights the ship on Thursday. Ks have always been his calling card and only the D-backs have struck out more then the Marlins this year. Mike Stanton already has hat hair from the Golden Sombrero-to-be (just kidding — Dave <3’s Mike Stanton and so do I).
AL-only
Marc Rzepczynski, Blue Jays (99 percent available)
Start: Wednesday, July 21 at Royals
Outlook: It’s uncertain how many starts Rzepczynski will make for Toronto, but he’s someone who should be on the AL-only radar. The left-hander posted a 3.67 ERA in 11 turns for the Blue Jays last season and he comes with definite whiff potential — 9.5 career Minor League K/9, 60 Ks in 61 1/3 big league innings last year and 10 more in 6 2/3 frames this season. The Royals have the AL’s highest batting average (that stat is guaranteed to win you money in a bar bet), but their lineup seriously lacks pop. Roll the dice with Rzepczynski. And for the record, it’s pronunced “zep-CHIN-ski”.
NL-only
Alex Sanabia, Marlins (99 percent available)
Start: Friday, July 23 vs. Braves
Outlook: Summer, 2010: Lady Gaga’s hit song “Alejandro” surges into the top-5 on pop charts worldwide. Simultaneously, Alex Sanabia posts a 2.03 ERA and 65/16 K/BB ratio for Double-A Jacksonville. Alex’s real first name: Alejandro. Coincidence? I don’t think so either. Clearly, what we have here is a spurned right-hander trying to win back his pop icon ex-girlfriend by upping his strikeout rate and limiting walks in his first season in the high Minors. “Don’t call my name, don’t call my name, Alejandro.” It’s working, too. Sanabia held the Nationals scoreless and struck out five over 5 2/3 innings in his last start. “I’m not your babe, I’m not your babe, Alejandro.” The Braves have scored more than four runs just three times in July. If Sanabia pitches a no-hitter Friday while Gaga cheers him on wearing only her underwear and a Marlins jersey — well, he might just become mixed league relevant.
Tradespin: The one with Yunel Escobar and Alex Gonzalez
By Dave Feldman and Ian Kay
A decently sized trade went down on Wednesday, as the Braves and Blue Jays swapped shortstops. The mind-numbingly frustrating Yunel Escobar heads to Toronto and the over-achieving Alex Gonzalez will take his talents to Atlanta. Additionally, the Braves sent pitcher Jo-Jo Reyes over the border, with Minor Leaguers Tim Collins and Tyler Pastornicky going the other way.
What the Jays got …
For owners still holding Escobar after a .238/28/0/19/5 first half, this trade provides a dash of hope on the horizon.
The 27-year-old was the 10th shortstop and 115th overall player drafted in Yahoo! leagues before the season, but currently ranks outside the position’s top-30. Basically, owners were expecting Elvis Andrus or Alexei Ramirez value but got Nick Punto or Cesar Izturis instead. Ick.
Or rather, owners got that (lack of) production until about mid-May and then dumped Escobar like third period French. He’s currently 45 percent owned in Yahoo! leagues.
Howevahhhh…
A gander at Escobar’s peripheral stats shows few significant differences between this season and ’09, when he posted a .299/89/14/76/5 line and was fantasy’s eighth-most valuable shortstop. His strikeouts are down slightly, his walks are up and his batted ball rates are roughly the same.
So why the Rey Ordonez-esque numbers all of the sudden? Well for one, Escobar’s BABIP this year is .270, compared to a .316 career mark. For another, none of his fly balls have cleared the fence. His HR/FB percentages the last three years: 10.1, 9.1 and 7.9.
Trade or no trade, this is a man due for a serious luck reversal.
Not that the trade won’t help. The Braves scored two more runs than the Blue Jays in the season’s first half, but Toronto’s lineup blasted 66 more home runs and slugged 51 points higher in that span. Toronto also offers a better home ballpark for hitters, and Escobar will have the luxury of more games at Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium and less Nationals Park and Citi Field.
Put together the luck factor and the change of scenery, and, I’m giving Escobar a “cautious buy” rating. For those of you familiar with the Homeland Security Advisory System color scale, Escobar would be Status Yellow: Elevated — significant risk of solid production.
I say he does something around .290 AVG 37 R, 6 HR, 33 RBI, 3 SB the rest of the way and proves more valuable than Gonzalez, Marco Scutaro and Ryan Theriot in the second half.
Jo-Jo Reyes, the other piece going to Toronto in this deal, is far less interesting for mixed leaguers. The left-hander has a career 6.40 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and 128/98 K/BB ratio in 41 Major League appearances (37 starts). His Minor League K numbers are intriguing, but he’ll likely begin the second half in Triple-A and is only a spot-start option in deeper mixers if called up.
What the Braves got …
Leaving Canada and the friendly confines of the Rogers Centre along withthe power-hitting Blue Jays lineup should likely translate into diminished power production for Gonzalez, who was batting .259 with 17 homers and 50 RBIs at the break. But, hey, it’s not like you really expected him to hit 30 home runs this year, anyway. A lifetime .248 hitter, Gonzalez’s .259 average shouldn’t change too much with the change of scenery, but his likely drop in power production should relegate him to the bench or even waiver wire in most mixed-league formats.
Counterpoint: The trade of poutine for peaches should only help his waistline.
The big coup in this deal for Atlanta comes in a small package. Tim Collins is just adorable! The five-foot-seven, 155-pound Collins has been one of Toronto’s most eye-opening prospects this season, as the southpaw reliever posted a 2.51 ERA with a jaw-dropping 73/16 K/BB ratio over 43 innings for Double-A New Hampshire. The Braves have a keen eye for young pitching talent,as Collins will now join Arodys Vizcaino, Julio Teheran, Mike Minor and Randall Delgado in what is widely regarded as the most formidable collection of Minor League pitching prospects.
The 20-year-old Pastornicky was a fifth-round pick by the Jays in the 2008 First-Year Player Draft and was batting 258 with 16 doubles, six home runs and 35 RBI in 77 games for Class A Dunedin. He’s stil a ways away from potentially making a Major League impact. I wish I could tell you more about him, but I can’t.
The 2010 NL All-Value Star Team
By Ian Kay
Dave already took care of the AL squad here. Remember, we’re not picking the best players of the first half — just those who have provided the best value since draft day.
Catcher: Miguel Olivo, Rockies
Yahoo! ADP: 21st catcher, 226th overall
2010 stats: .325 AVG, 42 R, 11 HR, 42 RBI, 4 SB
Olivo has hit second-round pick Joe Mauer by 32 points and has more than twice as many homers (11) as the catcher drafted immediately before him — Jarrod Saltalamacchia — has at-bats (5).
Also considered: Buster Posey
First base: Aubrey Huff, Giants
Yahoo! ADP: 39th first baseman, 238th overall
2010 stats: .295 AVG, 55 R, 17 HR, 54 RBI, 3 SB
Owners savvy enough to only pay for Huff’s sub-par ’09 numbers on draft day are reaping the benefits now that he’s returned to his ’08 form.
Also considered: Adam Dunn, Troy Glaus, James Loney, Joey Votto
Second base: Martin Prado, Braves
Yahoo! ADP: 20th second baseman, 215th overall
2010 stats: .325 AVG, 51 R, 10 HR, 39 RBI, 4 SB
Prado was drafted between Kazuo Matsui and Aki Iwamura. Those two are currently playing in Triple-A. The Prado is the NL batting leader at the break.
Also considered: Kelly Johnson, Rickie Weeks
Third base: Scott Rolen, Reds
Yahoo! ADP: 43rd third baseman, 253rd overall
2010 stats: .290 AVG, 43 R, 17 HR, 57 RBI, 0 SB
Rolen is on pace for his best power output since he hit 34 dingers back in ’04. Not bad for a guy drafted a round after Emilio Bonifacio.
Also considered: Casey McGehee
Shortstop: Rafael Furcal, Dodgers
Yahoo! ADP: 12th shortstop, 174th overall
2010 stats: .333 AVG, 51 R, 6 HR, 35 RBI, 14 SB
What a run it’s been for Furcal. The shortstop went from injured afterthought to savior for many a fatasy squad with a .369/.414/.604 line, six homers and six steals in 35 games since May 29.
Also considered: Juan Uribe
Outfield: Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies
Yahoo! ADP: 39th outfielder, 144th overall
2010 stats: .314 AVG, 56 R, 17 HR, 60 RBI, 12 SB
No other player with at least 17 home runs broke double-digits in steals before the break. The closest? Albert Pujols with 9 SB.
Outfield: Chris Young, Diamondbacks
Yahoo! ADP: Not in top-50 OFs
2010 stats: .314 AVG, 56 R, 17 HR, 60 RBI, 12 SB
Only two NL players went 15/15 before the All-Star break. The other — Matt Kemp — cost most owners a first round pick back in March.
Outfield: Angel Pagan, Mets
Yahoo! ADP: Not in top-50 OFs
2010 stats: .315 AVG, 46 R, 6 HR, 40 RBI, 19 SB
Pagan is still unowned in over half of Yahoo! leagues. How many steals is it going to take for this guy to get noticed? Do you realize that no other NL outfielder is batting .300 with more than 12 swipes?
Also considered: Corey Hart, Colby Rasmus, Andres Torres, Josh Willingham
Starting pitcher: Mat Latos, Padres
Yahoo! ADP: Not in top 50 SPs
2010 stats: 10-4, 2.45 ERA, 0 SV, 99 Ks, 0.97 WHIP
Even the most bullish projections only had Latos emerging as a solid No. 2 or 3 starter this season — not a full-fledged staff ace. With a 99/28 K/BB ratio, owners shouldn’t expect too much of a dropoff in the second half.
Also considered: Jaime Garcia, Tim Hudson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Johnson, Carlos Silva, Adam Wainwright
Relief pitcher: Matt Capps, Nationals
Yahoo! ADP: Not in top-50 RPs
2010 stats: 3-3, 3.18 ERA, 23 saves, 33 Ks, 1.41 WHIP
Many expected Capps to only serve as a place-holder for a few months until Drew Storen was ready to take over ninth inning duties for the Nationals. Twenty-three saves later, the right-hander actually has pretty decent job security.
Also considered: Ryan Franklin, Leo Nunez, Billy Wagner
Cheap Thrills: Roger That
By Ian Kay
It’s one of fantasy land’s most mythical beasts: the
power-speed threat who won’t kill your team’s average.
Rarely seen in the wild — or on the waiver wire — most
owners are forced to pay upwards of $30 at pre-season auctions or surrender
vast riches in the trade market just to catch a glimpse of this oh-so-valuable
commodity.
But peer through the trees, owners, and you’ll see Roger
Bernadina — a potential roto unicorn quietly roaming the outfield of Nationals
Stadium.
Bernadina appeared poised for a breakout rookie year last
season after hitting .335/.400/.490 with nine homers and 40 steals over 120
games split between Double-A and Triple-A in ’08. Unfortunately, a nasty broken
ankle limited his ’09 season just 10 games.
The injury doesn’t appear to have any residual effects,
however, as the 26-year-old bounced back to hit .282/.345/.436 with five home
runs and seven steals in the first half, including a stellar .329/.409/.476
line in June.
Though the .335 average in ’08 is something of an outlier
compared to Bernadina’s Minor League track record, his peripheral stats
indicate that something in .275 range isn’t too much of a stretch. The speed is
certainly for real (he averaged 40 steals per 162 games in the Minors), and power should continue to develop as he becomes more comfortable at the big
league level.
Slotted into the No. 2 spot in Washington’s lineup,
Bernadina should be in line for plenty of runs with Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn
and Josh Willingham backing him up. Stellar defense in right field should will Mike Morse from stealing too much playing time, and the three-day
All-Star break should provide ample time to fully recover from the back stiffness
that hampered him last week.
Put it together Bernadina’s skill set and opportunity, and
you’re looking at a floor of Willy Taveras or Corey Patterson type production
and a ceiling of Brian Roberts or Shane Victorino (circa ’07-’09).
In the short term, I’m projecting him at .277 AVG, 40 R, 7
HR, 32 RBI and 17 SB for the remainder of 2010. He should be owned in all
NL-only formats and has enough upside to play in 12-team or deeper mixed
leagues.
Just 2 percent owned in Yahoo! Leagues right now, I think he
outperforms the more-popular David DeJesus (50 percent), Austin Jackson (45
percent) and Franklin Gurtierrez (36 percent) after the break.
The Fantasy Goodness 