Category: Dailies

Tradespin: Saved by the Tejada — Bell big winner in trade

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(By Dave)

The Padres acquired third baseman Miguel Tejada from the Orioles on Thursday in exchange for Minor League pitcher Wynn Pelzer. Tejada didn’t have much fantasy value in Baltimore, and he won’t have much fantasy value in San Diego. 

Here’s what you need to know:
  • Though the Padres desperately need to upgrade their shortstop position with Everth Cabrera hitting .201 on the year, Tejada is expected to primarily spell Chase Headley, who has posted an underwhelming .269-7-34 line over 98 games primarily at the hot corner
  • Tejada, who posted an almost-identical .269-7-39 in his return to Baltimore this season, hasn’t been a mixed-league factor in ’10 and certainly won’t be one now playing half his games at PETCO Park.
  • I have to think Tejada will play more shortstop for San Diego than reports initially indicate, but since he already has shortstop eligiblity after playing 158 games at that position last season with the Astros, this does little for his fantasy prospects.
  • For what it’s worth, Tejada owns a lifetime .288/.321/.365 triple-slash over 52 at-bats at PETCO Park.
  • Oh, and feel free to erase Pelzer’s name from your memory bank, as the 24-year-old right-hander sported a 4.20 ERA with a .277 average against and 83/56 K/BB ratio over 94 1/3 innings with Double-A Texas. This was pretty much just a salary dump on the O’s part. And I can’t blame them.
  • The big winner who emerged from this trade is Orioles top positional prospect and third baseman Josh Bell, who will take over the hot corner in Charm City for the rest of the season. Bell went 5-for-19 (.263) during a cup of coffee earlier this month with B-More, but has hit .273 with 13 homers, 50 RBIs and a .481 slugging percentage over 316 at-bats with Triple-A Norfolk this season. The 23-year-old is projected to be the O’s third baseman of the future and is a must-add in any AL-only format. 

Tradespin: Rangers cannot afford a new 1B? Cantu!

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(By Dave)

According to numerous reports, the Rangers have acquired cornerman Jorge Cantu from the Marlins in exchange for Double-A right-handers Evan Reed and Omar Poveda.
A free-agent-to-be, Cantu is hitting .259 with 10 homers and 54 RBIs and a .408 slugging this season for the Marlins.
Unfortunately for the Rangers, these numbers are still much better than whatever Chris Davis (.188-0-3; 101 AB) has been providing.
Furthermore, with Ian Kinsler on the DL with a strained left groin, Cantu — who has played over 200 games in his career at 1B, 2B and 3B — can provide insurance there, as well.
Shifting to a much better lineup and a much better ballpark should heavily increase Cantu’s fantasy value the rest of the way, and the possibility that he could add second-base eligibility makes him a virtual must-add in any format in which he has been dropped.
Cantu posted a .289-16-100 line last season over 149 with the Fish, and there’s little reason to think he can’t replicate — if not top — those type of numbers the rest of the way in Texas.

Tradespin: Two Roys are Better than One

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(By Dave)

The Phillies have reportedly come to an agreement with the Astros to acquire Roy Oswalt in exchange for starter J.A. Happ and a few rumored prospects. The deal apparently all hinges on whether Oswalt waives his no-trade clause and is OK being the second-best Roy on the team.

Despite the immense real-life baseball ramifications of the deal, a move to the Land of a Thousand Cheesesteaks will likely have little affect on Oswalt’s fantasy value.
Here’s why:
  • The soon-to-be 33-year-old was already in the midst of a quality season, as his 3.42 ERA is his lowest clip since his ’07 campaign and his 1.11 WHIP is his best mark since his rookie year in ’01.
  • Despite the friendly hitting confines of Minute Maid Park, Oswalt has been dominant on his home turf throughout his career, posting a 2.89 ERA over 998 1/3 career innings. Combine that with the fact that his new stomping grounds — Citizens Bank Park — favors batters, as well, and a change of home ballparks would likely only have a nominal affect on Oswalt’s performance.
  • The one main promising prospect for Oswalt is the hope that jettisoning the second-to-last-place Astros in favor of the contending Phillies will reinvigorate the Houston ace and he can repeat what Cliff Lee did last season for the Phils. Though this remains a possibility, I just don’t see it happening. Oswalt is a fine pitcher but Lee is Lee, and judging by his current 114/7 K/BB ratio, last season’s success with the Phils was really only the tip of the iceberg for the all-world southpaw.
  • With that said, outside of a few more wins, expect more of the same from Oswalt should he pitch in Philly. And, frankly, that’s not a bad thing. A mid-to-low ERA in the threes combined with a K/9 rate in the eights still makes him a Top 30 fantasy starter going forward.
 

Tradespin: Jhonny Peralta to Detroit; Scott Podsednik to L.A.

By Ian Kay
Remember when Cliff Lee almost definitely a Yankee? Well, now Roy Oswalt has for sure been traded to the Phillies. Maybe. Unless he doesn’t like Philadelphia. 
That deal would be a hearty Trade Season entrée, but nothing is certain until the dotted lines are signed on and the prospects are named later. What we do know is that two other deals went down on Wednesday. They may only be soup-and-salad level, but they are 100 percent guaranteed to actually be real. Analysis awaits:
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Trade 1: The Tigers acquired infielder Jhonny Peralta…
Detroit has been overwhelmed by injuries of late, so this is more of a depth move than anything else. Peralta will take over at third base until Brandon Inge returns from the DL in mid-to-late August, then move into a time-share arrangement with Danny Worth at shortstop.
Once a valuable 20-homer middle infielder, the 28-year-old’s fantasy value has fallen off a cliff since the end of ’08. He’s now a batting average liability who doesn’t run and isn’t likely to hit more than five home runs the rest of the way. While Detroit’s lineup should produce more runs than Cleveland’s, Peralta’s career numbers at Comerica Park — .243/.293/.365 with five homers in 243 plate appearances — are less than encouraging. Mixed leaguers shouldn’t feel obligated to make a move, and even AL-only owners can consider his value roughly unchanged.
…from the Indians for pitching prospect Giovanni Soto.

A young catcher who can hit? That seems like a lot to give up for… Ohhh. That’s Geovany Soto. This is Giovanni Soto. Well, Giovanni was a 21st round pick in the ’09 Draft and wasn’t listed among Baseball America’s top-10 Tigers prospects before the season. A 2.10 ERA and 113 Ks in 128 1/3 career Minor League innings are impressive, but the left-hander has yet to pitch above Class A. At 19 years old, Soto is a long way from any kind of fantasy relevance. 
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Trade 2: The Dodgers acquired outfielder Scott Podsednik…
This one hurts. Podsednik has provided a ton of sneaky value for deep-league and AL-only owners with 30 steals and a .310 average as the Royals’ everyday left-fielder. The situation in Hollywood, however, is far more complicated. Once Manny Ramirez returns from the DL — probably mid-August — Podsednik is likely the odd man out in Joe Torre’s outfield. Even as a backup, he’ll compete with Reed Johnson (also on the DL) and Garrett Anderson (washed up) for at-bats. 
The Dodgers run almost as often as the Royals and a better surrounding lineup will mitigate some of Dodger Stadium’s run-suppressing effects, but all that will be moot if Podsednik is only starting once or twice per week. Mixed league owners can hang onto him for now but should start scouring the waiver wire and trade market for alternative speed merchants. The 34-year-old becomes an immediate drop in those formats when Manny returns. Podsednik’s short-term steal potential makes him worth a claim In NL-only leagues, albeit not a top priority one.  
…from the Royals for a pair of prospects — catcher Lucas May and right-hander Elisaul Pimentel.

MLB.com prospexpert Jonathan Mayo has all the details on Kansas City’s return here. May is 25 years old and could develop into a big league starter, but he’ll head to Triple-A for now. The Royals appear content with Jason Kendall for the rest of 2010. Pimentel has decent numbers at Class A but, like Soto, is probably several years from big league action.

What can Brown do for you?

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(By Dave)

Domonic Brown was just called up and will take over for Shane Victorino in the Philadelphia center field with the Flyin’ Hawaiian DL’ed due to an abdominal strain on his left side.

Here’s what you need to know about the 22-year-old outfielder:
  • Was ranked by Baseball America as the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball in their “Midseason Updated Top 25 Prospects”, released on July 9, 2010. 
  • Has made Triple-A look like Candy Land, posting a .346/.390/.561 triple-slash for Lehigh since his midseason callup, including five homers, six doubles, 21 RBIs and five steals with a 8/22 BB/K ratio over  107 at-bats.
  • Finished last season with a .299-14-64 line with 23 steals across three Minor League levels.
  • Is the best five-tool player and athletes in the Minors, outside of (maybe) Desmond Jennings.
Now, it’s unclear how long Victorino will be out, and it’s also unclear if the Phillies will make any moves at the Trade Deadline to free up a spot for Brown for the rest of the season — this could easily just be a two-week callup.
With that said, if Brown were to play out the rest of the season, I’d project a .305-5-18 line with 7 steals and 19 runs scored the rest of the way, with more value than other outfielders like Jose Tabata, Jay Bruce, Jose Guillen, Johnny Damon, Brennan Boesch, Austin Jackson and Raul Ibanez. 

When toiletries attack: Marlins call up Logan Morrison

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By Ian Kay

The Marlins have wanted to get Logan Morrison into the Major League lineup for a while, but probably not like this.

Left fielder Chris Coghlan will miss six to eight weeks after suffering a knee injury in a shaving cream pie celebration gone bad following Florida’s walk-off win on Sunday. Morrison has been promoted from Triple-A to take Coghlan’s roster spot and presumably keep an eye on any uppity toothpaste, shampoo or hair gel hanging around the Marlins clubhouse. 
Losing Coghlan isn’t a major blow for most owners. The outfielder had a big June but did little in the season’s other three months, hitting .268 with five homers and 10 steals overall. Morrison, however, could be the real cream filling in this unfortunate situation.
Baseball America’s No. 16 mid-season prospect, Morrison profiles closer to current Marlins first baseman Gaby Sanchez than right fielder Mike Stanton at this point. The 22-year-old has a career .292/.383/.465 Minor League line and is hitting an even more appetizing .307/.427/.487 with six home runs in 293 Triple-A at-bats this season. He controls the strike zone very well (48 BB, 35 SO this season) and hasn’t shown a major platoon split, which should make for a relatively easy transition to the big leagues. 
Morrison is primarily a first baseman, but he’s played 19 games in left field this season and figures to see most of his lineup time there unless the Fish deal Jorge Cantu before the Trade Deadline and shift Sanchez to third. While skipper Edwin Rodriguez said Morrison will initially share playing time with Emilio Bonifacio, that arrangement shouldn’t last long. Bonifacio can’t hit; Morrison can. 
While he’s probably long gone in dynasty formats, Morrison should be an immediate add in all NL-only leagues and 12-team mixers. As long as an early-season shoulder injury isn’t an issue, he’ll provide immediate help in the average category and could surprise with his power. Owners in OBP leagues should pay even closer attention. I peg him for a .291 AVG, 26 R, 7 HR, 23 RBI and 2 SB the rest of the way, with more value than Johnny Damon, Jose Guillen, Troy Glaus and Ike Davis.

Tradespin: Dan Haren done dealing in the desert

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By Ian Kay

The Angels and Diamondbacks got together on a deal Sunday, with right-hander Dan Haren heading to Lala Land in exchange for left-hander Joe Saunders, pitching prospects Rafael Rodriguez and Patrick Corbin and a player to be named later — reportedly pitching prospect Tyler Skaggs.

What the Angels got:

In Dan Haren, the Halos receive…well, that depends. Between ’05 and ’09, the right-hander was one of the baseball’s great under-appreciated assets. Over those five seasons — the first three with the A’s, the last two in Arizona — he averaged 15 wins per season with a 3.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 7.8 K/9. His K/BB paced the Majors in each of the past two campaigns.
This year, however, has been a different story. Despite increasing his K-rate once again (he’s done that in each successive season of his career) to 9.00 and keeping his walks at a better-than-respectable 1.9 BB/9, Haren is 7-8 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. The difference? Our old friends, BABIP, HR/FB rate and LOB percentage. 
Haren is seeing more balls in play drop for hits (.350 BABIP in ’10, .305 career), more of his flyballs leave the park (13.9 percent in ’10, 11.1 career) and stranding fewer runners on base (70.9 percent in ’10, 73.2 career) than usual. Plain and simple, it’s bad luck. That’s really the only explanation for a 4.86 K/BB ratio producing an ERA worse than the league average.
Sometimes, a change of scenery is the perfect solution to luck-induced mediocrity. Haren moves to a tougher league, but he’ll also toss home turns in a far more pitcher-friendly ballpark and have a much more reliable bullpen protecting potential victories. There’s no guarantee he’ll turn things around this year, but the percentages are in his favor. I liked him as a buy low before and I like him even better now. How does 7 wins with a 3.11 ERA, 84 Ks and a 1.08 WHIP sound? Good? I thought so. Make an offer if his owner isn’t into the whole “advanced stats” thing.
What the Diamondbacks got:

In short, not much fantasy owners need to worry about. This looks more like a salary dump than anything else.
Joe Saunders is what he is at this point: a pitch-to-contact lefty whose ERA is mostly dependent on luck. He posted a 3.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in ’08 thanks to a .257 BABIP, but a 4.61 mark in 306 innings since then is probably a better indicator of his true talent level. Chase Field deflates his fantasy value slightly, but Saunders was just spot start material in 12-team mixed leagues anyway.
The other players the D-backs received figure to have even less immediate fantasy value than Saunders. Rafael Rodriguez is a right-handed reliever with 32 2/3 Major League innings under his belt. Arizona’s ‘pen has been a mess all year, but even Raf-Rod isn’t a high-K option and probably won’t factor into the saves picture any time soon.
Neither Patrick Corbin nor Tyler Skaggs has pitched above Class A, but Arizona’s return in this trade will ultimately depend on their development. Skaggs, the 40th overall pick in the ’09 Draft, has a 3.60 ERA and 82 Ks in 82 1/3 innings with Class A Cedar Rapids. Corbin, a second-rounder a year ago, has a 3.88 ERA and 64 whiffs in 60 1/3 innings one level higher at High-A Rancho Cucamonga. Both should be on the radar for owners in deep dynasty formats, but they’re still at least two years away from contributing in the Majors.

Flash Gordon Approaching (again)

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(By Dave)

It only took David DeJesus dislodging his thumb in a nearly catastrophic
way, but, yeah, Alex Gordon is finally back in the Majors with the Royals.

Get out the chips and guac — this could be big!

Wait, actually, put them back. Before we get too excited,
let’s rewind.

The No. 2 overall pick in the 2005 First-Year Player Draft
and the 2006 Baseball American Minor League Player of the Year, Gordon started
off the season as the Royals’ starting third baseman after a few injury-plagued
and lackluster years in the bigs.

The 2010 campaign didn’t start out so hot for Gordon, as the
26-year-old hit .194 (6-for-31) with a double, home run, RBI and 5 runs scored
in 12 games for the Royals before getting demoted to Omaha.

And when Gordon gets demoted to Omaha, Gordon gets mad. And
when Gordon gets mad, pitchers get obliterated.

Since his demotion into Counting Crows Country, Gordon shifted to the outfield and hit .315
(82-for-260) with 20 doubles, three triples, 14 home runs, 44 RBI and 59 runs
scored over 59 games. 

Hey, quit doodling his name on your binder, I’m not done
here.

Those numbers translate into a stellar .315/.442/.577
triple-slash, and, yes, that’s really a .442 OBP, and, yes, at this point I
just want to see how many commas I can fit into one sentence.

In all seriousness, Gordon deserves legit consideration even
in shallow mixed leagues. Crazier things have happened than a former blue-chip
prospect finally figuring it out at the age of 26.

Just don’t tell Brandon Wood that. 

Take your pick: Reyes or Kinsler?

By Ian Kay
Working on a trade in a 10-team mixed league this morning, I was offered a choice between Jose Reyes and Ian Kinsler.
Both are middle infielders with stud potential but plenty of  injury issues. One is a shortstop with 70-steal wheels. The other is a 30/30-caliber keystone. 
Who’s the better value the rest of the way? Let’s pro/con this together, folks.
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Why Reyes?
Speed: It’s probably the most valuable commodity in the roto game, and Reyes has more of it than just about anyone. He’s stolen at least 56 bases in each of his five full seasons and is 19-for-21 in theft attemps this year. Kinsler is a speed merchant in his own right, but Reyes is in a whole different category.
Position: There are fewer quality shortstops than second basemen this season. Besides Hanley Ramirez, which of baseball’s star offensive options play short? There’s Troy Tulowitzki (currently on the DL), Jimmy Rollins (down year) and, uh, that’s about it. In a 12-team league, guys like Marco Scutaro and Cliff Pennington are starters at short. Check out the Yahoo! position rankings for three players who qualify at both slots: Ben Zobrist: No. 4 SS, No. 8 2B; 
Juan Uribe: No. 10 SS, No. 14 2B; Jeff Keppinger: No. 15 SS, No. 19 2B. Juan Uribe as a 10-team starter? That’s a serious lack of depth.
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Why Kinsler?
Power: What Kinsler loses to Reyes in speed, he makes up for in power. The second baseman hit 31 homers last season and has a career .472 slugging percentage. Reyes’ career high was 19 bombs back in ’06. His career slugging mark is nearly 40 points lower at .433. While the pair is dead even at six homers each right now, that likely won’t be the case for long. Kinsler’s gone yard five times in his last 20 games — including one each of the past two nights — and is slugging .617 in that span.
Environment: Rangers Ballpark is a hitter’s paradise, especially when the weather really heats up late in the summer. Kinsler’s lineup spot is also pretty cushy — behind Michael Young‘s .353 OBP and in front of Josh Hamilton and Vlad Guerrero‘s combined 145 RBIs. Reyes, meanwhile, plays home games at cavernous Citi Field and won’t see many RBI opportunities leading off for an NL team. 
The Verdict
Personally, I’m going with Reyes. The gap between these two is razor thin, but the chance at 20-plus second half steals without hurting my batting average is too much to pass up. That said, if I needed a second baseman more or was hurting in the power categories, I’d have no reservations adding Kinsler to my squad.

Mid-afternoon snack with Pedro and Tommy

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(By Dave)

I already covered Aramis Ramirez in today’s Rundown, but I
wanted to dedicate a little space to two other players who have been really, really good lately. 

Pedro Alvarez, 3B,
Pirates

·          Alvarez went 2-for-4 last night with a pair of homers and
five RBIs. One of those homers was a grand slam.  Guess what the other one was.

Since July 9, he’s hitting.355 (11-for-31) and slugging .742
with three homers, three doubles and eight RBIs. This is good.

He’s also walked five times in this span, compared to the
six walks he drew in his previous 72 at-bats – Growth!

The bad news is the strikeouts – Pedro continues to whiff at
an incredible 38.8 clip, pretty much tarnishing any change of his ability to
sustain an average north of .300 (or probably even .275) the rest of the way.

With that said, he’s strong like bull (.277-13-53 line for
Triple-A Indianpolis) and should be a productive hot cornerman the rest of the
way.

It wouldn’t surprise me if he outproduces Scott Rolen,
Michael Cuddyer, Chase Headley and if he’s really really really really really
lucky, Chris Davis.

 

Tommy Hunter, SP,
Rangers

·          Hunter tossed seven shutout innings last night vs. the
Tigers, allowing just three hits and two walks while striking out three to improve
to 7-0 with a 2.09 ERA.

Eight of Hunter’s nine starts have been quality

His 1.11 WHIP is delicious.

His 31/14 K/BB ratio does not forebode well. At all.

His .253 BABIP tells me tells me this is some spicy psychedelic
lights show about to go very wrong.

His next two starts are against both likely to be against
the Angels, and I’d sell him immediately for pretty much any good pitcher who’s
production hasn’t been living up to his draft stock (I’m well aware of how
poorly constructed that last sentence was. But I’m pretty much referencing
Javier Vazquez, Wandy Rodriguez, James Shields and Chad Billingsley).